Rory McIlroy’s hold on a major PGA Tour benchmark just wavered, revealing a shift few saw coming. A new breakdown of the past five FedExCup seasons hints at emerging forces challenging his long-standing edge.

The picture isn’t dramatic yet, but it’s definitely different. It is not a ranking based on a single bad tournament or a rough weekend on the golf course.

Rather, the ranking measures consistency, the average final position over five years of 80 players who have been ranked in the FedExCup standings in each of those years.

Patrick Cantlay leads the pack with a 6.4 average finish, making him the top performer over the period. Viktor Hovland comes in third with a 9.0 average, while McIlroy lands at 10.2. McIlroy has long been a benchmark for stability on the PGA Tour, which makes his slide behind Cantlay and Hovland stand out.

It’s less about McIlroy slipping and more about the others raising their floor. Cantlay’s steady week-to-week play and Hovland’s accelerating climb show how the top tier is tightening in ways that are hard to ignore. 

This shift doesn’t erase McIlroy’s resume. His majors, FedExCup titles, and big-moment performances still define his legacy. But with the Tour deeper and more competitive than ever, consistency across entire seasons is becoming the metric that separates the good from the elite. And that’s where the numbers tell the story.

What’s Behind McIlroy’s Drop?

On paper, Rory McIlroy is still doing a lot right. Even over the past couple of seasons, Rory McIlroy has still collected impressive wins, including the 2025 The Players Championship and the 2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Yet, despite those high points, his week-to-week results have grown more uneven. In the 2025 season alone, after those wins, he finished as low as T23 at the Tour Championship and only T12 at the BMW Championship.

Occasionally, the wins that he achieves still illustrate his amazing talent. However, a few times when he finishes outside the top 10 or even out of contention, these instances have an effect on his overall average over the years. And in a ranking that rewards season-long steadiness, these scattered off-weeks are exactly what push him just behind Cantlay and Hovland.

In short, McIlroy’s flashes of brilliance remain, but in a Tour where steady excellence counts, even a handful of off-weeks can quietly erode the edge. What are your thoughts about Rory McIlroy’s journey so far? Do tell us in the comments.

Written by

Dolly Bhamrick

Edited by

Siddharth Shirwadkar