For Scottie Scheffler, winning had become almost expected. He collected seven PGA Tour titles in 2024, then added six more in 2025, including two majors.

But staying at that level year after year is another challenge altogether. As 2026 began, Scheffler’s dominance suddenly appeared to be slipping.

This year, his lone victory came at the season-opening American Express in January, and since then, he has endured a drought in the winner’s circle.

 In 17 events, he has posted 11 top-four finishes—five runner-ups, two thirds, three fourths—but no wins.

Now the question is why? Well, the reason might be his opening rounds.

Scheffler’s opening rounds averaged 69.18, nearly 1.75 strokes worse than his closing rounds. It may not sound like much, but this simple difference has changed how his tournaments unfold.

He has been struggling to close out tournaments, and it has been evident throughout the season.

A 74 in Round 2 at the Masters left him 12 shots behind Rory McIlroy, while playoff defeats at the RBC Heritage and Travelers Championship saw him lose to Matt Fitzpatrick and Viktor Hovland. At the 3M Open, Jackson Koivun also edged him by three strokes.

Production is hardly the problem for Scheffler. He leads the PGA Tour in adjusted scoring (68.775), Strokes Gained: Total (+2.251), and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (+1.682), while also leading the tour in greens in regulation (72.73%) and bogey avoidance (10.02%).

“He played well enough to strengthen his reputation as the most dependable major championship golfer in the game. He did not play well enough to add to his legacy,” writes professional golf coach Brendon Elliott about Scheffler's performance in 2026.

However, can he redeem himself at the FedEx St. Jude Championship? Another insider, however, believes otherwise.\

Tour championship format change could hurt Scheffler's redemption bid

Scheffler is sitting atop the FedExCup points list, and while many might see that as a good thing, experts would beg to differ. He won the trophy in 2024 and has the experience to do it again, but the rules have changed this time around.

“The thing is, if the man from Dallas, Texas, remains at the top of the standings heading into the Tour Championship, he may well be at a disadvantage. That's because the PGA Tour changed the Tour Championship format last year, whereby everyone in the 30-man field begins on the same score,” wrote Antony Martin of HITC.

What does it mean? Well, basically, being No. 1 or No. 2 in the FedEx Cup might sound great, but the reality is quite different.

Those players are scheduled in the final group, which means they will have to play in the afternoon, when the conditions are tougher, and the environment can be quite different and challenging.

“Meanwhile, the last group that tees off will have to deal with the psychological blow of already being at least a few shots behind the leader by the time they get out on the golf course,” wrote Martin.

With new problems to face, will Scheffler be able to prove everyone wrong? Time will tell.

Written by

Suryakant Das

Edited by

Zaid Quraishi